Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
